Theories of Futures Pricing

Investment Management and Portfolio Theory · 3:24

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Lyrics

[Verse 1]
When you look at futures trading every single day
The price you see ain't matching what the spot price has to say
There's a gap between them, and it's not by accident
Three theories help explain it, let me tell you what they meant

[Chorus]
Insurance, hedging, storage - these are the three
That make the futures price dance differently
Insurance, hedging, storage - remember these names
They solve the puzzle of the pricing games

[Verse 2]
Insurance premium theory says that futures cost you more
Because they give you certainty that wasn't there before
You're buying peace of mind against the price uncertainty
That premium that you're paying is the cost of being free

[Chorus]
Insurance, hedging, storage - these are the three
That make the futures price dance differently
Insurance, hedging, storage - remember these names
They solve the puzzle of the pricing games

[Verse 3]
Hedging pressure theory looks at who needs what the most
If hedgers need to sell more, then the price gets diagnosed
When sellers outnumber buyers in the hedging population
Futures price drops lower, that's the market's compensation

[Bridge]
Storage costs are real costs, warehousing takes its toll
Interest rates and spoilage, they all play their role
Convenience yield flows back when inventory runs low
Supply and demand forces make the storage premiums grow

[Verse 4]
Theory of storage adds up all the costs you bear
Warehousing and insurance, interest hanging in the air
But convenience yield subtracts when supplies are running tight
Having goods on hand right now is worth more than the price

[Chorus]
Insurance, hedging, storage - these are the three
That make the futures price dance differently
Insurance, hedging, storage - remember these names
They solve the puzzle of the pricing games

[Outro]
Now you know why futures prices move the way they do
Insurance, hedging, storage - these theories will see you through

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