[Verse 1]
Started with a hunch, my prior belief in hand
Thought I knew the odds before I took a stand
Then the evidence comes knocking at my door
Should I flip completely or just shift a little more?
[Chorus]
Bayesian updating, don't swing too wide
Start with your prior, let evidence guide
How much should this change what I thought before?
Not the whole story, just one piece more
Update with reason, not with your heart
Base rates and stories, keep them apart
[Verse 2]
The trader sees protests filling up the street
Vivid scenes of anger, cameras and heat
But what's the prior on organic versus planned?
Don't let the footage force your heavy hand
[Chorus]
Bayesian updating, don't swing too wide
Start with your prior, let evidence guide
How much should this change what I thought before?
Not the whole story, just one piece more
Update with reason, not with your heart
Base rates and stories, keep them apart
[Bridge]
One dramatic story shouldn't move the needle far
Statistics speak louder than the brightest star
Multiply your prior by the likelihood
Weight the new evidence like a good analyst should
[Verse 3]
Most people swing wildly when the news breaks through
Abandon all their priors for a different view
But contrarians know the disciplined way
Ask how much this evidence should change today
[Chorus]
Bayesian updating, don't swing too wide
Start with your prior, let evidence guide
How much should this change what I thought before?
Not the whole story, just one piece more
Update with reason, not with your heart
Base rates and stories, keep them apart
[Outro]
Prior times the likelihood, that's your new belief
Steady small adjustments bring the sweet relief
Of thinking like a Bayesian in an uncertain world