[Verse 1]
When schedules blur and timelines fade
Three estimates must be weighed
Optimistic dreams so bright
Pessimistic worst-case fright
Most likely sits between the two
PERT formula will see you through
[Chorus]
Expected equals O plus four M plus P
Divided by six, that's the key
Standard deviation, P minus O
Over six, that's how the numbers flow
Variance squares the deviation game
PERT estimation, remember the name
[Verse 2]
Beta distribution curves the path
Weighted average does the math
Four times likely pulls the center
Where realistic thoughts can enter
Smooths the peaks of wild extremes
Balances the planning schemes
[Chorus]
Expected equals O plus four M plus P
Divided by six, that's the key
Standard deviation, P minus O
Over six, that's how the numbers flow
Variance squares the deviation game
PERT estimation, remember the name
[Bridge]
Sigma tells you how much spread
Between the optimistic thread
And pessimistic boundary line
Uncertainty by design
Square it once for variance measure
Risk assessment becomes treasure
[Verse 3]
Project managers need to know
When buffers help the timeline grow
PERT gives confidence in planning
Risk and schedule understanding
Three point estimates create the blend
On which your project can depend
[Chorus]
Expected equals O plus four M plus P
Divided by six, that's the key
Standard deviation, P minus O
Over six, that's how the numbers flow
Variance squares the deviation game
PERT estimation, remember the name
[Outro]
O plus four M plus P over six
PERT formula always sticks