Exercise 4.2: Tolerance Threshold Design

Black Swan Risk Management · 4:06

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Lyrics

[Verse 1]
Three risks from your past assessment now
Need thresholds to guide us through
Watch and Warning then Crisis how
We'll catch the storm before it's due
Cyber breach or supply chain break
Market crash that shakes the ground
Measurable signs for heaven's sake
Not vague words but numbers sound

[Chorus]
Watch means early signals show
Warning means prepare to go
Crisis means we're in the fight
Thresholds keep us in the light
Numbers not just words that blur
Authority knows who's in charge
Actions triggered when they occur
Black swan planning flying large

[Verse 2]
Cyber risk needs clear design
Five failed logins start the Watch
Network slowdown past the line
Twenty percent means Warning notch
Crisis hits when systems fail
Complete breach of customer data
CEO authority won't bail
Incident response team's gotta

[Chorus]
Watch means early signals show
Warning means prepare to go
Crisis means we're in the fight
Thresholds keep us in the light
Numbers not just words that blur
Authority knows who's in charge
Actions triggered when they occur
Black swan planning flying large

[Verse 3]
Supply chain disruption next
Two suppliers having delays
Watch level context
Warning when it's seven days
Crisis declaration comes
When primary source goes down
COO authority never runs
From backup vendors all around

[Bridge]
Market crash the third one here
Ten percent drop triggers Watch
Twenty means the Warning's near
Thirty's Crisis on our watch
CFO makes the call
Board notification flows
Cash reserves available for all
When economic black wind blows

[Chorus]
Watch means early signals show
Warning means prepare to go
Crisis means we're in the fight
Thresholds keep us in the light
Numbers not just words that blur
Authority knows who's in charge
Actions triggered when they occur
Black swan planning flying large

[Outro]
Tolerance thresholds save the day
When black swans come to play
Specific measures lead the way
Ready for tomorrow's fray

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