[Verse 1]
When you're planning out your project timeline
Three estimates help you define
Optimistic when everything goes right
Pessimistic when you hit every fight
Most likely is your middle ground
Where reality can usually be found
[Chorus]
PERT estimation, here's the equation
Optimistic plus four times most likely plus pessimistic
Divide by six, that's the expected trick
Oh plus four M plus P, all over six you see
Standard deviation, simple calculation
Pessimistic minus optimistic over six
That's your uncertainty fix
[Verse 2]
Expected duration shows the way
How long your task will likely take each day
Add them up with weighted math
Four times likely on the path
Uncertainty we need to know
Standard deviation helps us show
[Chorus]
PERT estimation, here's the equation
Optimistic plus four times most likely plus pessimistic
Divide by six, that's the expected trick
Oh plus four M plus P, all over six you see
Standard deviation, simple calculation
Pessimistic minus optimistic over six
That's your uncertainty fix
[Bridge]
Variance is sigma squared
When risk assessment must be shared
Square that standard deviation
For your project's preparation
Beta distribution curve
Gives the answers that you deserve
[Verse 3]
Three point estimation guides your way
Through the PMP exam day
Remember the formula clear
Expected value will appear
When optimistic meets the worst
Most likely keeps you well rehearsed
[Chorus]
PERT estimation, here's the equation
Optimistic plus four times most likely plus pessimistic
Divide by six, that's the expected trick
Oh plus four M plus P, all over six you see
Standard deviation, simple calculation
Pessimistic minus optimistic over six
That's your uncertainty fix
[Outro]
Expected equals oh plus four M plus P
All divided by six, that's the key
Sigma equals P minus O over six
PERT will get your estimates fixed