Understanding Prepayment Risk

Fixed Income: Bonds and Portfolio Management · 3:57

Listen on 93

Lyrics

[Verse 1]
Sarah bought a mortgage bond, thought she'd hold it thirty years
But the borrowers had other plans that brought her to tears
When rates dropped down, they all rushed out to refinance their loans
Left Sarah with her principal back, but income dreams were blown

[Chorus]
Prepayment risk will catch you when you least expect it to
CPR tells the story of what borrowers will do
Single Monthly Mortality, SMM shows the rate
PSA models help predict your investment's fate
When they pay early, early, your returns fade away
Prepayment risk, prepayment risk, will steal your yield today

[Verse 2]
Conditional Prepayment Rate measures yearly speed
How fast the mortgages will pay, it's what investors need
But monthly is more useful so we calculate SMM
Single Monthly Mortality shows the monthly mayhem

[Chorus]
Prepayment risk will catch you when you least expect it to
CPR tells the story of what borrowers will do
Single Monthly Mortality, SMM shows the rate
PSA models help predict your investment's fate
When they pay early, early, your returns fade away
Prepayment risk, prepayment risk, will steal your yield today

[Bridge]
PSA assumes the baseline, one hundred percent speed
Month one starts at zero-two, increasing what you need
By month thirty it reaches six percent CPR
This benchmark helps investors know how bonds might fare

[Verse 3]
When interest rates are falling down, prepayments start to soar
Homeowners rush to refinance and walk right out the door
But when the rates are climbing up, they're likely gonna stay
Your mortgage bonds live longer but at lower rates they pay

[Chorus]
Prepayment risk will catch you when you least expect it to
CPR tells the story of what borrowers will do
Single Monthly Mortality, SMM shows the rate
PSA models help predict your investment's fate
When they pay early, early, your returns fade away
Prepayment risk, prepayment risk, will steal your yield today

[Outro]
So remember when investing in those mortgage-backed securities
Prepayment risk is lurking with its painful certainties
CPR and SMM, PSA models too
Will help you understand what those homeowners might do

← Tranching and Credit Enhancement | Asset-Backed Securities Basics →