[Verse 1]
Nobody saw the towers crumble down that Tuesday morning
Markets crashed in '08, caught the experts by surprise
Pandemic lockdowns swept the globe without a warning
These are the swans that Taleb classified
Three feathers mark the bird that breaks our planning
First one: outliers that shock our narrow scope
Second: massive impact, leave us scrambling
Third: hindsight makes us think we could have coped
[Chorus]
Black swan, black swan, three traits you must remember
Unexpected, high impact, predictable in hindsight
Black swan, black swan, complacency's defender
Post-mortems fool us into thinking we had foresight
[Verse 2]
Fukushima's waves demolished every seawall
Risk assessments missed the compound cascade
Hurricane Katrina breached what should have stood tall
Yet every after-action said "mistakes were made"
That third trait whispers lies into our boardrooms
"Next time we'll be ready, patterns now are clear"
But retrospective logic breeds our mental blind spots
False confidence becomes what we should fear
[Chorus]
Black swan, black swan, three traits you must remember
Unexpected, high impact, predictable in hindsight
Black swan, black swan, complacency's defender
Post-mortems fool us into thinking we had foresight
[Bridge]
Regular expectations couldn't see it coming
Extreme disruption shattered every plan
Retrospective narratives keep our minds from wondering
What other blind spots hide from mortal span
The third property's the deadliest deception
Makes us think our crystal balls are bright
But black swans mock our confident perception
Swimming just beyond our tunnel sight
[Final Chorus]
Black swan, black swan, three traits you must remember
Unexpected, high impact, predictable in hindsight
Black swan, black swan, complacency's defender
Question every post-mortem's perfect sight
[Outro]
Outliers with massive devastation
Followed by hindsight's false salvation
That's the swan that breaks our preparation