2 The Counterfactual Problem

havana american primitivism, cape verdean acoustic rock, grime calypso, koto gnawa · 4:09

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Lyrics

[Verse 1]
Sarah builds her fortress walls, firewalls and encryption strong
Monitors flash green all year, nothing ever goes wrong
But when budget season comes, executives just frown
"What disasters did you stop?" They want numbers written down

[Pre-Chorus]
How do you prove what never was?
How do you show an empty cause?

[Chorus]
The counterfactual problem haunts us all
Proving prevention when nothing falls
What would have happened? We'll never know
Make the invisible damage show
The counterfactual problem's real
Turn speculation into something they can feel

[Verse 2]
Marcus passed the SOC2 audit, celebration time
Built the evidence framework, every process by design
Board asks "What's the value here? Show us what you've earned"
Can't display catastrophes that never got confirmed

[Pre-Chorus]
Executives reward what's seen
Not the disasters blocked upstream

[Chorus]
The counterfactual problem haunts us all
Proving prevention when nothing falls
What would have happened? We'll never know
Make the invisible damage show
The counterfactual problem's real
Turn speculation into something they can feel

[Bridge]
Before the work begins, paint the cost of breach
During implementation, make consequences reach
After completion, build the story clear
What devastation would have landed here
Calculate the phantom losses, quantify the ghost
Transform your saved disasters into something you can host

[Final Chorus]
The counterfactual problem doesn't win
When you frame the chaos that could have been
Make the absent havoc crystal bright
Shine a spotlight on prevented blight
The counterfactual problem's solved
When imagination gets executives involved

[Outro]
Turn the "what if" into "what we saved"
Make your phantom victories behaved

← 1 The Asymmetry of Visibility | 3 Narrating the Counterfactual →