[Verse 1] Back in seventy-three the world began to change Oil prices shot up high, seemed sudden and strange But here's the lesson that we need to learn today One shock's not the same as inflation's way A price jump hits you once then settles down But true inflation keeps spinning round and round The difference matters more than you might think Let's trace this story to the missing link [Chorus] One-time shock, it comes and goes Ongoing process, that's how inflation flows Catch-up wages, expectations rise Delayed response beneath economic skies One-time shock, it comes and goes Ongoing process, that's how inflation flows Three factors make it stick around and stay Catch-up, adaptive, policy delay [Verse 2] Workers saw their dollars buying less and less Demanded higher wages to relieve the stress Those catch-up wage demands became the fuel For prices climbing higher, that's the rule When paychecks grow to match the rising cost The purchasing power that seemed to be lost Gets built right back into the pricing game And inflation keeps burning like a flame [Chorus] One-time shock, it comes and goes Ongoing process, that's how inflation flows Catch-up wages, expectations rise Delayed response beneath economic skies One-time shock, it comes and goes Ongoing process, that's how inflation flows Three factors make it stick around and stay Catch-up, adaptive, policy delay [Bridge] Adaptive expectations play their part When people think inflation's gonna start They act as if it's already here Making their predictions reappear [Verse 3] The central bankers should have tightened fast But hesitation made the crisis last Delayed and inconsistent policy moves Let inflationary pressure find its groove What started as a one-time price jump high Became a process that just wouldn't die The lesson from that fateful watershed year Shows how persistence made the cost severe [Chorus] One-time shock, it comes and goes Ongoing process, that's how inflation flows Catch-up wages, expectations rise Delayed response beneath economic skies One-time shock, it comes and goes Ongoing process, that's how inflation flows Three factors make it stick around and stay Catch-up, adaptive, policy delay [Outro] Nineteen seventy-three showed us the way How one shock turned into decades' fray Remember the difference, keep it clear One-time versus ongoing, crystal clear
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