[Verse 1]
Picture interest rates as dots upon a chart
Short-term bonds on left, long-term apart
Connect the dots and watch the pattern grow
This yield curve tells us what the markets know
When longer bonds pay more than shorter debt
That's normal slope, the safest curve you'll get
[Chorus]
Up and right means normal sight
Short stays low, long climbs high
Down and flat spells danger chat
Recession whispers in the sky
Curve shape decides your portfolio fate
Remember this before it's too late
[Verse 2]
But sometimes curves flip upside down
When short-term rates are higher ground
Three months beats ten years straight
Inverted signals economic weight
Investors flee to safety's call
Long bonds rise while short ones fall
[Chorus]
Up and right means normal sight
Short stays low, long climbs high
Down and flat spells danger chat
Recession whispers in the sky
Curve shape decides your portfolio fate
Remember this before it's too late
[Bridge]
Duration risk hits long bonds hard
When curves steepen, prices scarred
But flattening curves boost their game
While short-term bonds stay much the same
Bond managers watch every twist
Each curve movement can't be missed
[Verse 3]
Portfolio performance swings around
Based on which curve shape is found
Bullet strategy works when flat
Barbell shines when steep's where it's at
Read the signals, time your play
Yield curves guide the smartest way
[Chorus]
Up and right means normal sight
Short stays low, long climbs high
Down and flat spells danger chat
Recession whispers in the sky
Curve shape decides your portfolio fate
Remember this before it's too late
[Outro]
From Treasury bills to thirty-year notes
Follow the line where interest floats
Normal, flat, or inverted scene
Know what every curve shape means