[Verse 1]
Thousand battle deaths, that's the line they drew,
Correlates of War counting bodies, cold and true,
Every clash since eighteen-sixteen logged and weighed,
A thousand dead or more, then it's war, not a raid.
Here's the riddle rational minds can't shake,
Fighting costs a fortune, why not split the cake?
If both sides know the outcome before the first shot's fired,
Why not just hand over what the war required?
[Chorus]
Private information, commitment's broken word,
Indivisible ground nobody wants to split, absurd,
Three locks on the bargain, that's Fearon's frame,
P, C, I — remember the name,
Say it with me: private, commitment, indivisible,
The reasons rational states still go unmissable.
[Verse 2]
Private information means I'm bluffing with my hand,
I say my army's weak but it's the strongest in the land,
Commitment problem: promise today, break it tomorrow,
Rising power can't trust peace it has to borrow,
Indivisible issue — one shrine, one holy hill,
Can't cut it fifty-fifty, no treaty built on goodwill,
Three locked doors, the bargaining range collapsed to zero,
That's why diplomats go home and generals turn hero.
[Verse 3]
Jervis said the battlefield starts inside the skull,
Misperception paints the rival twice as full
Of menace than he is — a spiral of mistrust,
Security dilemma turns your shield to dust,
You arm for safety, I see a loaded gun,
I arm right back, now the war's already won
By nobody — both sides spending, both sides scared,
Perception is the minefield neither side prepared.
[Verse 4]
Leaders in trouble start a diversionary fight,
Rally the flag, turn the cameras, hide from sight
The scandal back home, the economy's decay,
Power shifting like sand — that's a rising state's buffet,
The old power gets nervous watching numbers climb,
Strikes while it's strong before it runs out of time,
Nineteen-fourteen, Berlin's clock starts to chime,
Germany's rise met Britain's fear — no brake, no rhyme.
[Bridge]
Game theory's the chessboard, deterrence is the threat,
Credible and costly, or the bluff's never set,
A casus belli lights the fuse — the Archduke's bled,
But structure pulled the trigger more than words that were said,
Pyrrhic is the victory that costs you everything you own,
Count the thousand dead before you fight alone.
[Chorus]
Private information, commitment's broken word,
Indivisible ground nobody wants to split, absurd,
Three locks on the bargain, that's Fearon's frame,
P, C, I — remember the name,
Say it with me: private, commitment, indivisible,
The reasons rational states still go unmissable.
[Outro]
Thousand deaths, that's the count, the bargain, that's the dream,
Misperception, diversion, power's shifting seam,
Why wars happen isn't fate, it's logic gone to war,
Study the game before you walk out that door.