The Return of Middle East Oil

Iran International reports that the Times based its findings on tanker-tracking data, and that the Wall Street Journal reported oil shipments through the strait and alternative routes have returned to nearly 80% of pre-war regional levels.[1]According to Bloomberg-syndicated reporting on Energy Connects, JPMorgan analysts led by Natasha Kaneva said the 10-day average of crude exports from the Middle East has rebounded to 17.5 million barrels a day, or 98% of pre-war levels.[2]OilPrice.com reports that the revival appears driven by the Saudi East-West oil pipeline, the use of oil shuttles and ship-to-ship oil transfers, and a willingness by some in the industry to accept higher risk.[3]Richard Meade, chief editor of Lloyd's List, told an online briefing that "higher exports do not necessarily mean that the Strait of Hormuz has become safe."[3]Iran International reports that the UK Maritime Trade Operations said a vessel transiting Hormuz was struck by a suspected unknown projectile Monday evening, causing a fire that was later extinguished.[1]NBC News reports that consumers and businesses expecting major price relief on gas and diesel, however, will have to keep waiting.[4] JPMorgan said the Middle East's supply of products like diesel and gasoline remain constrained, at just 3 million barrels a day, or 58% of pre-war levels[2], according to Energy Connects.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said, according to Iran International, "We are awaiting an official response from the United States through the mediators"[1] on Tehran's proposal to reopen the strait.