The European Union Deforestation Regulation’s Uneven Impact: Who is exposed and what are the costs?

According to IISD, the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) applies from December 30, 2026, but its impact varies depending on the perspective taken[1]. The analysis, by Noémie Duray and Florencia Sarmiento, was published on October 15, 2026[1].IISD finds that the regulation covers around 4.3% of its imports from outside the bloc, a modest share overall but concentrated in a small number of commodities and suppliers[1].The institute says that large exporting countries, such as Brazil or China, have high volumes of trade covered by the EUDR but are not particularly dependent on the EU market[1]. IISD also reports that Burundi, Côte d'Ivoire, and Cameroon each rely on EUDR-covered goods sold to the European Union for at least a quarter of their total export value[1].IISD writes that in these countries, dependence usually rests on one product: coffee in Burundi, Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Uganda, and cocoa in Côte d'Ivoire, Cameroon, Ghana, and Sierra Leone[1].The analysis also warns that the EU itself is exposed to potential supply disruptions[1] where a few suppliers dominate, citing cocoa from Côte d'Ivoire, palm oil from Indonesia, and soya from Brazil[1].According to IISD, successive simplifications are estimated to reduce annual compliance costs by around 75%, although the remaining costs are spread unevenly along the value chain[1]. In an earlier IISD article, the institute said the European Commission estimated those costs would fall from approximately EUR 8.1 billion under the original regulation to EUR 2 billion[2].