Election 2026: How Democrats could win the House, how Republicans could hold on

According to an NBC News Decision Desk analysis, Democrats could add anywhere from a handful of seats to several dozen to their count[1].NBC News reports that Democrats hold 214 seats in the House, compared with 219 held by the Republicans, with two vacant seats.[2] The network says that Democrats need to net just three seats to gain the majority[2].NBC says its polling average shows 52% of likely voters prefer that the U.S. House be controlled by the Democrats, and 43% prefer the Republicans[1]. They add that this could result in the Democrats winning 238 seats, a slightly larger congressional majority than they did in the 2018 midterms at 235.[1]NBC's analysts say a larger swing like the one seen in 2025 and 2026 elections could give Democrats as many as 263 seats to the Republicans' 172.[3] NBC says that would be the largest majority that either party has held in the U.S. House since the 1990 midterm elections.[3]NBC reports that a shift smaller than 4.6 points would translate into the Republicans maintaining control of the House.[2] The network adds that Republicans stand to win as many as 10 more seats than if the map remained unchanged after 2024.[3] It reports that control of Congress could come down to whether Wittman can beat the national trend like he did two years ago.[4]Northeastern Global News quotes Lucas Holtz of Third Way as saying, "we are expecting Democrats to flip about 18 to 20 seats in the House, for a majority of around 232 seats."[5]