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Middle East latest: Iran warns of domestic gas shortages from war this winter

Headline from The National · compiled from 5 sources

Our analysis · checked against 10 sources

Iran says gas cuts possible nationwide this winter; war damage adds to existing deficit

Iran's government spokesperson said gas cuts could hit the whole country, including Tehran, if consumption is high, forecasting a peak daily shortfall of 430 million cubic meters versus about 300 million in previous years. Strikes beginning February 28 took 230 million cubic meters of daily capacity offline, about 100 million since restored; Iran already faced winter deficits before the war.

The framing"From war this winter" does rest on strikes that took 230 million cubic meters of daily capacity offline, with only about 100 million restored. But even before the strikes Iran ran a peak winter deficit of 200 to 250 million cubic meters a day.

What the headline leaves out

  • Before the strikes, Iran already ran a peak winter deficit of 200–250 million m3 a day; in December 2024 a 350 million deficit closed schools and offices.
  • Officials blame both war and decades of blockade; outdated equipment and sanctions have long limited supply.
  • The nationwide warning is conditional on consumption; each one-degree temperature drop adds about 25 million m3 to daily peak demand.
  • Cuts have already begun: cement plants lost gas entirely in late October.

What happens next

No dated decision was announced; officials say repairs run around the clock. NIGC head Tavakoli says talks with Russia and Turkmenistan on imports are under way, but as of mid-October no Turkmen deal was confirmed, and Iran International reports no firm delivery date or financing for a Russia pipeline. National Security Journal analysis flags the risk that rebuilding happens under threat of renewed strikes; watch the cause of the November 10 South Pars Phase 14 fire and any further supply cuts to industry or homes.

Possible knock-on effects
  • If consumption stays high, reduced supply could raise gas prices, which may hit households and industry already asked to cut use. (official assessment: First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref said gas prices could rise if consumption was excessive.. Watch for: Any announced change to gas tariffs or subsidy levels.)
  • A deep deficit during cold spells could again lead to closures of schools, universities and offices, which may disrupt education and public services. (precedent: In December 2024 the government closed schools, universities and offices at a 350 million m3 daily deficit.. Watch for: Closure orders or extra remote-work days beyond the existing two-day rule.)

Sources: Iran warns of domestic gas shortages from war this winter (Arab News/AP), Iran warns domestic gas shortages from war this winter (Asharq Al-Awsat), Iran just got handed a winter gas crisis (National Security Journal), Iran just warned that gas cuts may occur all over the country (National Security Journal), Oil ministry confirms 25% reduction in Iran's gas production capacity (IranWire), Energy crisis: Iran faces winter blackouts (Yeshiva World, citing FT), Ynet News report on Iranian officials' statements, Iran eyes gas imports from Russia and Turkmenistan (Caspian Post), Iran International on Russia gas pipeline progress, Iran International on the 40-day conflict of February–April 2026

Written in our own words from the sources above, and checked claim by claim before it was published. The report below says only what each outlet said.

The report: what outlets said

Reuters reports that Iran's government has warned of worsening internal gas shortages this winter as a result of damage to processing facilities in the war with the United States that could lead to cuts in supply.[1]

According to Reuters, as carried by Arab News, "If the level of consumption is high it is possible that gas cuts will occur all over the country including in Tehran," government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani said in a news conference in Tehran on Tuesday.[2]Asharq Al-Awsat reports that Mohajerani forecast a shortfall of 430 million cubic meters in gas supply this year, compared to about 300 million cubic meters in previous years.[3]Reuters, via Kayhan Life, reports that National Iranian Gas Company managing director Saeed Tavakoli said this month there had been damage to four processing plants during the first phase of the conflict[1]. He said this initially reduced capacity by 230 million cubic meters, of which around 100 million had so far been restored.[1]According to Middle East Online, the gas company warned last week that 11 of Iran's 31 provinces could face supply difficulties this winter, naming Mazandaran on the Caspian coast, and Golestan and North Khorasan[4] as the most vulnerable.Middle East Online also reports that Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf on Sunday called on Iranians to cut their gas use by 10% ahead of the winter.[4] The outlet adds that Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref was cited by state news agency IRNA on Monday as saying gas prices could rise[4] if people use too much gas.National Security Journal reports that security chief Mohsen Rezaei met Vladimir Putin on November 5 and said the two sides discussed "the construction of gas pipelines from Russia to Iran"[5] to help ease the shortages.

Listen to the songGulf News — November 12, 2026

Sources

  1. [1]Iran Warns of Domestic Gas Shortages From War This Winter - KAYHAN LIFE
  2. [2]Iran warns of domestic gas shortages from war this winter
  3. [3]Iran Warns of Domestic Gas Shortages from War This Winter
  4. [4]Iran warns of domestic gas shortages from war this winter | MEO
  5. [5]Iran Just Warned That Gas Cuts 'May Occur All Over the Country, Including in Tehran' This Winter and War with Trump Isn't Over - National Security Journal

Every sentence here reports what a named outlet said, with a link to it. Compiled by 93 from the reporting below.

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