[Verse 1] When the boardroom meets to assess what could go wrong They pull from memory, sing the same old song Recent headlines and familiar fears Guide their judgment year after year But the biggest threats stay out of sight Hidden from their tunnel vision light [Chorus] Availability blinds us to the new Anchoring chains us to what we knew Groupthink silences the warning voice Three deadly biases steal our choice Black swans are swimming just out of view While we're planning for what we've been through [Verse 2] Every estimate gets pulled toward the mean Industry benchmarks set the scene Historical data frames the debate But disruption doesn't hesitate When something breaks the pattern we've known Our anchored thinking leaves us alone [Chorus] Availability blinds us to the new Anchoring chains us to what we knew Groupthink silences the warning voice Three deadly biases steal our choice Black swans are swimming just out of view While we're planning for what we've been through [Bridge] The outlier speaks but no one hears Consensus drowns out inconvenient fears The dissenting view gets pushed aside As the group moves with the tide Those edge case warnings that we dismiss Might be the threats we're gonna miss [Verse 3] Experience becomes our greatest trap When we only see what's on our map The unknown unknowns stay concealed By the patterns that our minds have sealed Tomorrow's crisis won't look like today's But we keep walking familiar maze [Chorus] Availability blinds us to the new Anchoring chains us to what we knew Groupthink silences the warning voice Three deadly biases steal our choice Black swans are swimming just out of view While we're planning for what we've been through [Outro] To spot the swans we've got to break free From the bias chains of certainty Question assumptions, seek the strange Only then we'll see the change
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