Russia: Doubling down in Ukraine – and against the West

Writing for the Lowy Institute, Hill says that hopes that Kyiv's long-range drone attacks on Russian energy and other infrastructure over the summer heralded a turning of the tide "turned out misplaced"[1]. He adds that as winter approaches, Ukraine finds itself under relentless, widespread and damaging Russian missile and drone assaults.[1]According to the analysis, Russia has been unable so far to seize the key "fortress" cities of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Kostyantynivka[1]. Hill writes that Russia's heavy casualties require it to recruit at least 30,000 new troops monthly[1]. He notes this has prompted speculation about a creeping mobilisation – something the Kremlin would prefer to avoid for political and economic reasons.[1]Hill also writes that Ukraine too is suffering substantial losses, and faces a growing deficit in personnel and munitions[1]. In his view, peace talks continue "in name only", as Moscow counts on exhaustion to secure gains it cannot win on the battlefield.[1]The piece cites recent statements by Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, which, according to Hill, indicate that Moscow remains committed to its core objectives – control over all of Donbas, pliant government in Kyiv, and Ukrainian neutrality[1].On Russia's wider position, Hill writes that Moscow does not consider itself isolated in the world[1]. He points to Putin's recent engagement with BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation partners, including China and India[1].