Who will win the midterms? How the US elections will be won and lost

The BBC reports that one of the reasons the opposition Democrats have a chance to take back Congress is the president's low approval rating[1]. Citing Silver Bulletin, the BBC says Trump began his second term as president with an approval rating of just over 50%[1], but it then "quickly fell into the 40s."According to the BBC, the Republican House majority "is as thin as it gets"[1].The BBC cites the Cook Political Report as saying just 17 districts are "toss-ups"[1]. The outlet adds that even if the Democrats didn't win any of them, they would still win the House if they take the 34 seats classed as likely or leaning Democratic.[1]The BBC also reports that the average number lost by the president's party is 27, according to data going back to 1934.[1]On the Senate, the BBC says Republicans hold 53 of the 100 seats while the Democrats have 45 and two independents who also vote with them.[1] Al Jazeera reports that Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51 and take control.[2]Newsweek reports that Silver Bulletin's forecast gives Democrats a 95 percent chance of winning the House and a 76.4 percent chance of Senate control[3].The BBC says that once the midterms are over, the focus will shift to what the Democrats stand for, not just what they stand against.[1]